We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on March 24.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish short-term trend and favor additional short-term weakness during the next decline phase.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis
The index closed moderately higher today, reacting further off of previous lows of the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Cycle Analysis
We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 4 to May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 14 to May 20 range.
- Last STCL: March 23, 2020
- Cycle Duration: 2 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next STCL Window: May 4 to May 22; best estimate in the May 14 to May 20 range.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A close above current levels would predict a move up to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,695.
- Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent short-term low at 2,237 would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.
The bullish scenario is highly likely (>80 probable).
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.