We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.
The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the current bearish short-term trend and favors additional short-term weakness.
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S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis
The index closed sharply lower today, returning to previous lows of the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.
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Cycle Analysis
We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 2, with our best estimate being now through March 16.
- Last STCL: January 31, 2020
- Cycle Duration: 27 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next STCL Window: Now through April 2; best estimate now through March 16.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above congestion resistance in the 3,000 area would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,130.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.
The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).
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