Stock Market Commentary
We are 4 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.
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The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis
The index closed sharply higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.
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Cycle Analysis
We are 4 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through February 1, with our best estimate being now through January 31.
- Last STCL: December 3, 2019
- Cycle Duration: 37 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: Now through February 1; best estimate now through January 31.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 3,333 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 3,243 would predict a move down to the 50-day moving average at 3,202.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
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