Stock Market Commentary
We are 11 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.
The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the current rally phase.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
Technical Analysis
The index closed near unchanged today, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.
Cycle Analysis
We are 11 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from January 14 to February 1, with our best estimate being in the January 24 to January 30 range.
- Last STCL: December 3, 2019
- Cycle Duration: 11 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: January 14 to February 1; best estimate in the January 24 to January 30 range.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below uptrend support near 3,145 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,073.
The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).
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