Stock Market Commentary
We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in early October.
The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the next rally phase.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
Technical Analysis
The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from recent highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.
Cycle Analysis
We are 3 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 2. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 4, with our best estimate being in the November 25 to December 2 range.
- Last STCL: October 2, 2019
- Cycle Duration: 35 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: Now through December 4; best estimate in the November 25 to December 2 range.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent high at 3,127 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a return to the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,080.
The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).
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