We are 6 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on February 3.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the current bearish short-term trend and favors additional short-term weakness.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis
The index closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Cycle Analysis
We are 6 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 31. The magnitude of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 2, with our best estimate being now through March 16.
- Last STCL: January 31, 2020
- Cycle Duration: 28 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next STCL Window: Now through April 2; best estimate now through March 16.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 2,882 would predict a move up toward the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,085.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.
The bearish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.