Short-Term Forecast For Thursday, April 23

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on March 24.

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An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, a brief, shallow decline followed by a quick move above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. An extended alpha phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,191 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, a brief, shallow decline followed by a quick move above the last alpha high (AH) at 2,875 would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 4 to May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 15 to May 21 range.

Last STCL: March 23, 2020
Cycle Duration: 22 sessions
Cycle Translation: Bearish
Next STCL Window: May 4 to May 22; best estimate in the May 15 to May 21 range.

Setup Status: No active setups.
Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
Signal Status: No active signals.
Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 2,875 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast a move up to congestion resistance in the 3,000 area.
Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2,458 would predict a return to the previous short-term low at 2,237.

Both scenarios are equally likely.