Short-Term Forecast For Monday, Sept. 23

Stock Market Commentary

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began in August.

An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 2,840 would reconfirm the current bearish trend and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by a move up to new highs would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed near unchanged today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from June. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 7 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on August 5. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 2,840 would reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by a move up to new highs would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through October 4, with our best estimate being now through September 27.

Last STCL: August 5, 2019
Cycle Duration: 34 sessions
Cycle Translation: Bearish
Next STCL Window: Now through October 4; best estimate now through September 27.

Setup Status: No active setups.
Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
Signal Status: No active signals.
Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous long-term high at 3,026 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
Bearish Scenario: A close well below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 2,963 would predict a move down toward the previous short-term low at 2,841.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).