Short-Term Forecast for Monday, June 15

We are 5 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on May 14.

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The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 14. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from June 24 to July 15, with our best estimate being in the July 6 to July 13 range.

• Last STCL: May 14, 2020
• Cycle Duration: 22 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bullish
• Next STCL Window: June 24 to July 15; best estimate in the July 6 to July 13 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 3,232 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A close well below the 200-day moving average at 3,015 would predict a return to the 50-day moving average at 2,914.

The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60 probable).