Short-Term Forecast For Friday, October 30

Stock Market Commentary

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle that began on September 24.

The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally suggest that short-term direction is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last short-term low at 3,226 would reconfirm that current bearish short-term trend and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally would signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks, see the latest intermediate-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed sharply lower today, returning to recent lows of the downtrend from early October. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.

Cycle Analysis

We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on September 24. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase rally suggest that short-term direction is in question. An extended beta phase decline that moves below the last STCL at 3,226 would reconfirm that current bearish translation and forecast additional losses. Alternatively, a quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally would signal the likely transition to a bullish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 3 to November 23, with our best estimate being in the November 9 to November 13 range.

• Last STCL: September 24, 2020
• Cycle Duration: 26 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bearish
• Next STCL Window: November 3 to November 23; best estimate in the November 9 to November 13 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high at 3,534 would predict a return to the previous short-term high at 3,581.
• Bearish Scenario: A close below the previous short-term low at 3,226 would reconfirm the downtrend from early October and forecast additional losses.

The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80 probable).