Stock Market Commentary
A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on July 22. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on June 27.
A quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last short-term cycle low (STCL) at 3,009 would signal the likely transition to a bearish short-term trend.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
Technical Analysis
The index closed moderately lower today, retreating further from previous highs of the uptrend from March. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.
Cycle Analysis
A cycle high signal was generated today, indicating that the alpha high (AH) likely formed on July 22. We are 2 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on June 26. A quick rebound followed by an extended beta phase rally that moves up to new highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended alpha phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 3,009 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from August 7 to August 27, with our best estimate being in the August 19 to August 25 range.
- Last STCL: June 26, 2020
- Cycle Duration: 19 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: August 7 to August 27; best estimate in the August 19 to August 25 range.
- Setup Status: Cycle high setup occurred on July 23.
- Trigger Status: Cycle high trigger occurred today.
- Signal Status: Cycle high signal was generated today.
- Stop Level: None active.
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