Stock Market Commentary
The sharp decline today indicates that the beta high (BH) of the current short-term cycle likely formed on January 17. We are 4 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on December 3.
The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
Technical Analysis
The index closed sharply lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.
Cycle Analysis
The sharp decline today indicates that the beta high (BH) of the current cycle likely formed on January 17. We are 4 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 3. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase rally reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through February 1, with our best estimate being in the January 27 to January 31 range.
- Last STCL: December 3, 2019
- Cycle Duration: 35 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: Now through February 1; best estimate in the January 27 to January 31 range.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent high at 3,333 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below uptrend support near 3,280 would predict a move down toward the 50-day moving average at 3,196.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
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