We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on March 24.
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The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish short-term trend and favor additional short-term weakness.
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis
The index closed sharply lower today, moving down toward previous lows of the violent downtrend from February. Technical indicators are bearish overall, strongly favoring a return to previous lows of the decline.
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Cycle Analysis
We are 4 sessions into the alpha phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on March 23. The magnitude and duration of the last beta phase decline reconfirm the current bearish translation and favor additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from May 4 to May 22, with our best estimate being in the May 14 to May 20 range.
- Last STCL: March 23, 2020
- Cycle Duration: 9 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bearish
- Next STCL Window: May 4 to May 22; best estimate in the May 14 to May 20 range.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the previous short-term high at 2,630 would reconfirm the oversold reaction from last week and predict a return to congestion resistance in the 2,750 area.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2,458 would forecast a return to the previous short-term low at 2,237.
The bearish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).
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