September 2018 Producer Price Final Demand Year-Over-Year Inflation Continues to Moderate

The Producer Price Index year-over-year inflation declined from 2.8 % to 2.6 %.

Analyst Opinion of Producer Prices

The Producer Price Index declined year-over-year. Food and energy prices did moderate - but services inflation rose lead by transportation / warehousing. The decline in inflation was as expected. Here is what the BLS said in part:

Final demand services: The index for final demand services increased 0.3 percent in September following two consecutive declines of 0.1 percent. The broad-based advance was led by a 1.8-percent jump in the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.3 percent, and the index for final demand trade services inched up 0.1 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

Product detail: In September, over one-third of the advance in prices for final demand services can be traced to the index for airline passenger services, which rose 5.5 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol wholesaling; deposit services (partial); outpatient care (partial); apparel wholesaling; and lawn, garden, farm equipment, and supplies retailing also moved higher. Conversely, margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing fell 2.5 percent. The indexes for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing and for traveler accommodation services also declined. (See table 4.)

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods edged down 0.1 percent in September, the first decrease since a 0.5-percent drop in May 2017. Leading the September decline, prices for final demand energy fell 0.8 percent. The index for final demand foods decreased 0.6 percent. In contrast, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent.

Product detail: Leading the September decline in the index for final demand goods, gasoline prices fell 3.5 percent. The indexes for electric power; iron and steel scrap; canned, cooked, smoked, or prepared poultry; and fresh and dry vegetables also moved down. Conversely, the index for light motor trucks rose 0.8 percent. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas, pharmaceutical preparations, and unprocessed and prepared seafood also increased.

The PPI represents inflation pressure (or lack thereof) that migrates into consumer price.

The market had been expecting (from Econoday):

The producer price inflation breakdown:

 

In the following graph, one can see the relationship between the year-over-year change in intermediate goods index and finished goods index. When the crude goods growth falls under finish goods - it usually drags finished goods lower.

Percent Change Year-over-Year - Comparing PPI Finished Goods (blue line) to PPI Intermediate Goods (red line)

 

Econintersect has shown how pricing change moves from the PPI to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Comparing Year-over-Year Change Between the PPI Finished Goods Index (blue line) and the CPI-U (red line)

 

The price moderation of the PPI began in September 2011 when the year-over-year inflation was 7.0%. Currently inflation is on an increasing trend line.

Caveats on the Use of Producer Price Index

Econintersect has performed several tests on this series and finds it fairly representative of price changes (inflation). However, the headline rate is an average - and for an individual good or commodity, this series provides many sub-indices for a specific application.

A very good primer on the Producer Price Index nuances can be found here.

Because of the nuances in determining the month-over-month index values, the year-over-year or annual change in the PPI index is preferred for comparisons.

There is a moderate correlation between crude goods and finished goods. Higher crude material prices push the finished goods prices up.