September 2018 BLS Jobs Situation Mixed

The headline seasonally adjusted BLS job growth was well below expectations. The internals generally look good, and the pace of year-to-date growth exceeds last year. There continues to be troubling aspects of this month's data.

Analyst Opinion of the BLS Employment Situation

The household and establishment surveys were not in sync (understatement). The year-to-date employment is running above the pace of last year. Last month's data was revised significantly upward. The growth this month was significantly under expectations. Just considering this month's data - it was worse than last month.

• The year-over-year rate of growth for employment insignificantly accelerated this month (blue bars on graph below). This is a year-over-year analysis which has no seasonality issues.

• Economic intuitive sectors of employment were positive.
• This month's report internals (comparing household to establishment datasets) was inconsistent with the household survey showing seasonally adjusted employment growing 420,000 vs the headline establishment number expanding 134,000. The point here is that part of the headlines are from the household survey (such as the unemployment rate) and part is from the establishment survey (job growth). From a survey control point of view - the common element is jobs growth - and if they do not match, your confidence in either survey is diminished. [note that the household survey includes ALL jobs growth, not just non-farm).
• The household survey added 150,000 people to the labor force.
• The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)'s monthly Jobs Report is at the end of this post.

A summary of the employment situation:

• BLS reported: 134K (non-farm) and 121K (non-farm private). Unemployment rate was declined from 3.9 % to 3.7 %.
• ADP reported: 230K (non-farm private)
• In Econintersect's September 2018 economic forecast released in late August, we estimated non-farm private payroll growth at 220,000 (based on economic potential) and 235,000 (fudged based on current overrun / under-run of economic potential).
• The market expected (from Econoday):

The BLS reports seasonally adjusted data - manipulated with multiple seasonal adjustment factors, and Econintersect believes the unadjusted data gives a clearer picture of the jobs situation.

Non-seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls contracted 618,000 - better than last year but worse than any month this century except last year and 2008. The following chart compares the jobs gains this month with the same month historically:

Year-to-date unadjusted employment growth is 205,000 people above the pace of last year.

Last month's headline employment gains were revised upward. Generally speaking, the INITIAL employment gain estimate is overstated when the economy is slowing and understated when the economy is accelerating.

Most of the analysis below uses unadjusted data, and presents an alternative view to the headline data.

Unemployment

The BLS reported U-3 (headline) unemployment was 3.7 % with the U-6 "all in" unemployment rate (including those working part-time who want a full-time job) changed from 7.4 % to 7.5 %. These numbers are volatile as they are created from the household survey.

BLS U-3 Headline Unemployment (red line, left axis), U-6 All In Unemployment (blue line, left axis), and Median Duration of Unemployment (green line, right axis)

Econintersect has an interpretation of employment supply slack using the BLS employment-population ratio, demonstrated by the graph below. The employment-population ratio moved from 60.3 to 60.4.

Employment-Population Ratio

The jobs picture - when the employment/population as a whole - has been on an uptrend since mid-2011. This ratio is determined by household survey.

• Econintersect uses employment-populations ratios to monitor the jobless situation. The headline unemployment number requires the BLS to guess at the size of the workforce, then guess again who is employed or not employed. In employment - population ratios, the population is a given and the guess is who is employed.
• This ratio has been in a general uptrend since the beginning of 2014. The employment-population ratio tells you the percent of the population with a job. Each 0.1 % increment represents approximately 300,000 jobs. [Note: these are seasonally adjusted numbers - and we are relying on the BLS to get this seasonal adjustment factor correct]. An unchanged ratio would be telling you that jobs growth was around 150,000 - as this is approximately the new entries to the labor market caused by population growth.
• The growth in employment since the Great Recession has been in full-time jobs.

Employment Metrics

The growth trend in the establishment survey's non-farm payroll year-over-year growth rate was trending up beginning of 2014 but has been trending down beginning in 2015. Year-over-year growth rate insignificantly improved this month.

Unadjusted Non-Farm Payrolls Year-over-Year Growth

Another way to view employment is to watch the total hours worked where trends vary based on periods selected.

Percent Change Year-over-Year Non-Farm Private Weekly Hours Worked

The bullets below use seasonally adjusted data from the establishment survey except where indicated:

• Average hours worked (table B-2) was unchanged at 34.5. A rising number normally indicates an expanding economy.
• Government employment grew 13,000 (+13K) with the Federal Government down 1K, state governments up 22K and local governments down 8K.
• The big contributors to employment growth this month was health care (25.7K) and transportation/warehousing (23.8 K), and construction (23K), . There was a big decline in retail trade (-20.0K).
• Manufacturing was up 18K, and construction was up 23K.
• The unemployment rate (from household survey) for people between 20 and 24 (Table A-10) worsened 0.1 to 6.9 %. This number is produced by survey and is very volatile.
• Average hourly earnings (Table B-3) was up $0.08 to $27.24.

Private Employment: Average Hourly Earnings

Economic Metrics

Economic markers used to benchmark economic growth (all from the establishment survey).

The truck employment was up 4.9K.

Truck Transport Employment - Year-over-Year Change

Temporary help was up 10.6K.

Temporary Help Employment - Year-over-Year Change

Econintersect believes the transport sector is a forward indicator. Others look at temporary help as a forward indicator.

Food for Thought

Who are the victims in this employment situation. It is not people over 55.

Index of Employment Levels - 55 and up (blue line), 45 to 54 (red line), 35 to 44 (green line), 25 to 34 (purple line), 20 to 24 (light blue line), and 16 to 19 (orange line)

Women are doing better than men.

Index of Employment Levels - Men (blue line) vs Women (red line)

Mom and Pop employment remains below recessionary levels.

The less education one has, the less chance of finding a job.

Index of Employment Levels - University graduate (blue line), Some college or AA degree (orange line), high school graduates (green line), and high school dropouts (red line)

Here is an indexed view of employment levels.

Index of Employment Levels (from the BLS Establishment Survey) - Hispanic (blue line), African American (red line), and White (green line)

However, keep in mind that population growth is different for each group. Here is a look at employment to population ratios which clearly shows NO group has recovered from the Great Recession:

Employment / Population Ratios (from the BLS Household Survey) - Hispanic (blue line), African American (red line), and White (green line)

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)'s monthly Jobs Report Statement:

A record net 37 percent of owners reported raising overall compensation in hopes of hiring and retaining employees in the tight labor market, according to NFIB's monthly jobs report, released today. This surpasses the previous record of a net 35 percent in May 2018. The competition for qualified workers is pushing up compensation as there are more job openings than job seekers.

"There is extraordinary competition for workers in this historically tight labor market. Small business owners are investing more in their employees to attract and keep qualified workers," said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. "Thanks to the recent tax cuts and regulatory reform, owners are able and comfortable investing more in their employees and businesses which further strengthens the economy."

Down one point from last month, 61 percent of owners reported hiring or trying to hire, with 87 percent of those reporting few or no qualified workers. A separate survey asked about typical reasons for why an applicant was unqualified and 26 percent owners identified the lack of specific skill and 16 percent identified a poor work history. Owners also cited social skills, attitude, and appearance as disqualifiers.

Thirty-eight percent of owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged from last month. Reports of job openings were the most frequent in construction (56 percent), manufacturing (54 percent), transportation (51 percent), wholesale trades (44 percent), and retail (43 percent).

"The lack of qualified workers is having an effect, and owners are raising compensation to attract the right workers." saidNFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. "Hopefully this will also induce more individuals to enter or re-enter the labor force and take a job."

The labor market is tight for both skilled and unskilled workers, with 36 percent reporting openings for skilled workers and 15 percent reporting openings for unskilled workers. Down three points from last month, 14 percent reported using temporary workers.

A seasonally-adjusted net 23 percent of owners are planning to create new jobs, down three points from last month. Twenty-four percent plan to increase total compensation at their firm and six percent plan reductions. Firms in construction (net 26 percent unadjusted), wholesale trades (net 28 percent), and manufacturing (net 34 percent), account for the strength in hiring plans.

Job creation picked up in September, rising to a net addition of 0.15 workers per firm. A seasonally-adjusted 13 percent reported increasing employment an average of 4.6 workers per firm and 11 percent reported reducing employment an average of 1.9 workers per firm.

Click here to view the entire NFIB Jobs Report. For more information about NFIB, please visit nfib.com.

Caveat on the use of BLS Jobs Data

The monthly headline data ends up being significantly revised for months after the initial release - and is subject also to annual revisions. The question remains how seriously can you take the data when first released.

Econintersect Contributor Jeff Miller has the following description of BLS methodology:

1. An initial report of a survey of establishments. Even if the survey sample was perfect (and we all know that it is not) and the response rate was 100% (which it is not) the sampling error alone for a 90% confidence interval is +/- 100K jobs.
2. The report is revised to reflect additional responses over the next two months.
3. There is an adjustment to account for job creation — much maligned and misunderstood by nearly everyone.
4. The final data are benchmarked against the state employment data every year. This usually shows that the overall process was very good, but it led to major downward adjustments at the time of the recession. More recently, the BLS estimates have been too low.

ADP (blue line) versus BLS (red line) - Monthly Jobs Growth Comparison

However, there is some discussion that neither the ADP nor BLS numbers are correct - as both are derived by a sampling methodology. The answer could be that there is no correct answer in real time - and that it is best to look at the trends. As has been noted, all eventually end up correlating.

The BLS uses seasonally adjusted data for its headline numbers. The seasonally adjusted employment data is produced by an algorithm. The following graph which shows unadjusted job growth - seasonal adjustments spread employment growth over the entire year. Employment does not really grow in the second half of the year and always falls significantly in January.

Non-Seasonally Adjusted Employment - Private Sector

There is the proverbial question on what is minimal jobs growth each month required to allow for new entrants to the market. Depending on mindset, this answer varies. According to Investopedia, the number is between 100,000 and 150,000. The Wall Street Journal is citing 125K. Mark Zandi said 150K. Econintersect is going with Mark Zandi's number:

• In Econintersect's June 2014 economic forecast released in late May, we estimated non-farm payroll growth at 160,000 (unadjusted based on economic potential) and 229,000 (fudged based on current overrun of economic potential).
• If Econintersect uses employment - population ratios, the correct number would be the number where this ratio improved. Using the graph below, the ratio began to improve starting a little after mid-year. This corresponds to the period where the 12 month rolling average of job gains hit 150,000.

Employment to Population Ratio

Note: The ratio could be fine tuned by adjusting to the ratio of employment to working age population rather than the total population. However, this would not change the big picture that an increase of somewhere around 150,000 (+/-) is needed for the growing population numbers. We have estimated 140k - 160k. The number might possibly be within the range 125k - 175k. Econintersect cannot find reason to support the estimates below 125k.

The question of how changing demographics impact the employment numbers is at the margins of analysis. Econintersect will publish more on this fine tuning going forward, both in-house research and the work of others.