September 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Is Now Zero

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward is now showing no growth. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating no or modest growth six months from today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

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Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

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Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The August index value (issued in September) shows the rate of economic growth declined.

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. FIG Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in August, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 111.9 from 111.5 in July, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG ticked up in August, but is still well below last fall's cyclical peak," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downswing."

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

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ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

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source: ECRI