Sentiment Dives To Near “Liberation Day” Levels

Final U.Michigan sentiment at 53.3, down from preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations down 2.4 pts from preliminary.

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence level (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. March 2026 U.Mich sentiment is final. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

Presumably, the main driver for the decline in all the measures of the U. Michigan index is the effects of the US-Iran war. Current conditions fell 2 pts — from an preliminary increase — as would be expected from higher gasoline prices. However, expectations fell further than preliminarily indicated; the decline from February is now 4.9 pts.