Semiconductors Flashed A Warning In 2000 - Are They Doing It Again?

Are semiconductors flashing the same type of warning they flashed near the 2000 Nasdaq (QQQ) peak, or is today’s setup meaningfully different?

In this week’s video, we compare the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) in the 1998–2000 period to the current 2024–2026 advance. The goal is not to forecast a top or call for a crash, but to study the evidence, compare the market structures, and identify what would need to happen next to increase or decrease concern.

We’ll review:

- Semiconductors in 1998–2000 vs. today
- The Nasdaq 100’s long-term trend structure
- Moving-average stacks and cloud behavior
- Semiconductors relative to the S&P 500 (SPY)
- Why Fed funds forecasts are often unreliable
- Oil vs. stocks and inflation-related signals
- Treasury bonds and the current risk backdrop

Historical comparisons can help us monitor risk, manage probabilities, and stay aligned with the weight of the evidence.

Video Length: 00:47:20