The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) surged at the open, making a new all-time high. However, within an hour of trading the semi’s had reversed and were selling hard. This signals a possible major long-term top in the sector. The semiconductor failed breakout and topping tail are two mega signals that are extremely bearish. First, the reversal and hard sell from the initial surge created a topping tail. Topping tails are extremely bearish signals. In addition, the surge initially took out the high pivot from December 8th, 2020. The fact that the semiconductors pulled back underneath that high signals a failed breakout, another extremely bearish signal.
The combination of the semiconductor failed breakout and topping tail tell investors to expect further downside in the coming weeks and months. A simple retrace could net a move as low as $190 on the SMH within weeks.
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