Semi Bullish

The semiconductors have led the way.  First in Q1 of 2013, when NFTRH subscribers were alerted that the semiconductor equipment companies were ramping up and then through the big long-term breakout in February of this year, the Semiconductor index has led the way.

In case #1 (the Semi equipment ramp) the implication was for a strengthening economy at a time when everyone thought otherwise.  What happened?  The canary in the coal mine chirped and the economy strengthened despite indignant emails I got to the contrary.  All of this was against a media hysteria about the Fiscal Cliff with even a family member / financial adviser advising that the best and brightest fund managers were in cash (at Thanksgiving, 2012).  Ha ha ha.  “Bullish!” said I to the drop jawed family member. “Reeeealyyyy???”  Ah yah, really.

 

In case #2 (the big chart breakout) the implication has been the possibility that the SOX would lead the stock market to a blow off scenario.  Here is the daily chart showing SOX as of this moment, still on that task.

 

For reference again is the big picture chart we have been using that compares 1999 to today.  So many months now after we began to put it on high alert.

 

Nobody can predict diddly squat with the markets.  Some get lucky, but nobody’s got the secret sauce as a Swami.  But people sure should not be surprised that the market is still bullish on July 1, 2014.