Sellers Accelerate And Move Back To February/March Lows

Image source: Pixabay

A relatively torrid Thursday and Friday last week saw markets push towards the lows of February/March after various failed attempts to shape a higher low. Should we undercut these lows, we will have to consider the possibility for a larger measured move lower (anchored from the March high). 

If we were to consider the Nasdaq as a starting point, then the measured move down would give an approximate target of 10,900, or the swing low of August 2020 (at 10,520). There isn't a whole lot on the technical side which is positive, and the fact that intermediate stochastics [39,1] are not oversold suggests there is more downside to come. 

The S&P 500 took a slightly bigger hit than the Nasdaq last week, but its losses coincide with a momentum indicator that is caught in the middle ground - and weakening - to the extent that it could be another few weeks of declines before we see a bottom.

The Russell 2000 undercut its April low to bring it to the support level which has (so far) defined its trading range for 2022. Any further loss from here will eat into the 'bear trap' and return to play the measured move target. As with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, momentum is not yet oversold - which suggests the 'bear trap' will likely turn into another swing low in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. 

This week will be an interesting time for markets, as all are looking vulnerable to a larger move lower. While this environment is unfriendly to long-sided traders, it's a great one for buy-and-hold investors; use weakness to build a new or add to an existing position. There is always value to be found in the market.