Saudi Arabia Would Be Fine With It If Everyone Decided To Keep ‘Cooperating’ To Drive Up Oil Prices Past 2018

On Friday, the IEA made me talk about the self-defeating dynamic gripping the global crude market again.

In their latest report, the IEA predicted that U.S. crude supply is set to push past 10 mb/d, overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivaling Russia. That is of course attributable to the OPEC+ production cuts which have helped drive up prices, thus coaxing out more U.S. supply.

That U.S. supply will (eventually) cap prices and when they start to fall again, the X-factor will be wide-open capital markets. Insolvent (or uneconomic) production isn’t purged as easily in a world where investors are engaged in a frantic hunt for yield and so, the market is no longer as efficient as it was.

Meanwhile, executive compensation in the U.S. is at least partially tied to the growth and/or addition of new oil and gas reserves (i.e. not to profitability). So, the incentive is obviously to keep adding capacity. Consider this out from Reuters back in October:

Activist investors are taking aim at U.S. shale producers, the companies most responsible for turning the nation into a global energy powerhouse, pushing them to stop rewarding executives for spending billions of dollars on new wells when crude prices are depressed.

U.S. crude output has surged past 9 million barrels a day largely because of the shale sector, whose output this year is up 27.5 percent. The gains are fueled by a boost of about 50 percent in capital spending, benefiting executives come bonus time but crimping shareholder returns. Investors want the higher spending to go to dividends and buybacks, not more drilling.

The shift they are seeking could dampen spending on new wells, chilling a shale boom that has benefited U.S. motorists and consumers. It could help the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers who are trying to drain a global crude surplus. Booming U.S. shale production has largely thwarted OPEC output cuts aimed at lifting prices. Low oil prices, in turn, have hurt shareholder returns.

You get the idea. This an up-the-down escalator dynamic (that was the punchline from the post linked here at the outset). OPEC cuts, prices rise, U.S. production rises, prices are capped, prices fall, uneconomic producers remain alive (zombie style) thanks to wide-open capital markets, prices rise again, U.S. production rises again, and around we go.

For now, we are of course sitting at 3-year highs:

Although you should note that crude had its first losing week in five thanks at least in part to jitters over whether U.S. production will effectively neutralize the OPEC cuts:

Speaking of OPEC, they had themselves a powwow in Muscat this weekend and there were some notable soundbites.

Before we get to those, it’s worth noting that according to the joint technical committee meeting held Saturday ahead of the joint ministerial committee meeting on Sunday, the elusive “rebalancing” will occur in Q3 “at the earliest” and that’s assuming OPEC and its allies continue to comply with the cuts and also assuming production from Libya and Nigeria stays at December levels. Compliance in December was 129% while for all of 2017 it was 107%.

So obviously Russia is a big part of this equation and Alexander Novak was in Muscat for the talks. He called the cuts “successful” and also said Russia has talked about possibly cooperating after the cuts expire, “depending on the market.”

Al-Falih is all over the wires this morning. “It’s my personal belief that the market will rebalance at the end of 2018 or in 2019,” he told reporters, adding that “oil market fundamentals still need to improve [as] soft oil demand in 1H made us consider cutting for full year.”

He also said the oil cuts may have to be extended into 2019 if stockpiles build. That’s crucial. The Saudis seem to be angling from some kind of (basically) indefinite joint-action. “OPEC, non- OPEC agreed on cooperation beyond 2018, [but] producers didn’t decide on the mechanism for this cooperation,” he said.

Oman Oil Minister Mohammed Al-Rumhy also suggested cooperation will extend well beyond 2018. Additionally, he said the ministers meeting in Muscat on Sunday didn’t discuss an exit strategy from the global oil cuts.

As far as shale goes, Al-Falih (literally) said this: “[I’m] not worried about it”.

Yeah, ok man. Whatever you say.