Russia & Oil On The Comeback Trail?

Market Analysis: While the small-cap Russell 2000 had no problem reaching another all-time high, the market-leading Dow Transports are having trouble going anywhere. Unless the index begins chugging in the uphill direction, this could be a sign that we're close to a market top. Another sign is the fact that VIX volatility is again edging into contrarian levels.

Major breakouts in key areas today: 
- Oil & Gas producers & driller etfs: IEO, XOP, PXJ, OIH. In individual names, the following stocks made especially compelling moves: COSWF, ERF, AREX, EPE, HES, CEO, EQT, APC, CLR. I will be taking a long position in this space on a rally continuation.
- Russia-centric etfs: RUSL (3x Bull Russia, +14% today!), Russia Large-cap RSX, Russia Small-cap RSXJ, and two Emerging Europe funds GUR & ESR. The rise in Russian stocks could be due in part to today's advance in oil, so should oil fall, Russia could follow. If the rally in Russia (and oil) continue, the RUSL is clear to sail to the $45-$50 level--about 20%-35% above today's closing price. One notable mover in the Russian oil and gas space is Gazprom (OGZPY, $6.03). The stock jumped 7% to break above major support on heavier than normal volume. 
- While it's still a bit early to call a break-out in gold and silver metals, the mining etfs (GDX, GDXJ, XME) are within a millimeter of pushing above resistance. Today's rally in the metals combined with the rally in oil was enough to relieve the pressure on resource-rich Canada, pushing both its country fund, EWC, and its currency fund, FXC, above resistance.