In our previous Elliott Wave update on the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RSPG), we highlighted the possibility of a corrective pullback against the April 2025 low before the larger bullish trend resumed.
However, the market has now provided an important change in structure. Recent price action negated the expected correction and instead opened an incomplete bullish sequence to the upside. As a result, the preferred Elliott Wave count now suggests that wave 3 may already have started, with $130+ becoming the next important upside objective.
Previous Corrective Scenario Has Been Negated
Previously, $RSPG appeared to have completed five waves higher from the April 2025 low. Consequently, a larger correction against that advance looked possible before buyers returned.
Instead, price refused to develop the expected deeper corrective structure. $RSPG held its recent lows, resumed higher, and continued to extend through key resistance.
This price action changes the short-term interpretation. Rather than continuing a larger correction, the ETF has created a new bullish sequence that favors further upside.
Therefore, the prior corrective path against the April 2025 cycle is no longer the preferred scenario.
Bullish Sequence Is Now Incomplete
The latest rally has created an incomplete bullish sequence.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, this means the market should still require additional upside before the current structure can finish. Short-term pullbacks can occur along the way, but they should remain corrective while the sequence continues to point higher.
More importantly, the advance from the recent wave ((2)) low has started to show impulsive characteristics. That increases the probability that a larger wave 3 is already underway.
Wave 3 May Have Started
The current Elliott Wave count suggests that wave ((1)) completed the first major advance from the April 2025 low, followed by a corrective wave ((2)).
From there, $RSPG turned higher again and has started another impulsive structure.
The latest advance can be counted as waves 1 and 2, with price now progressing through the next bullish portion of the sequence. If this interpretation proves correct, wave 3 has already started.
This matters because third waves typically represent the strongest part of an Elliott Wave impulse. Momentum can expand quickly once the structure becomes established, especially when several bullish degrees align at the same time.
Double Nest Continues to Support Acceleration
The larger structure remains particularly constructive because $RSPG still carries the bullish nesting sequence discussed in our previous outlook.
The March 2020 low started the larger bullish cycle, while the April 2025 low created another important bullish nest. The recent price action has now added another smaller-degree 1–2 sequence.
Consequently, multiple bullish degrees can begin accelerating together.
This is why the recent breakout carries more significance than a normal short-term rally. The nested structure supports the possibility of a stronger expansion as wave 3 develops.
$130+ Comes Into Focus
With the bullish sequence now incomplete, the next major objective remains $130+.
$RSPG is already approaching this region, and the developing wave 3 structure suggests the ETF can continue extending above it in due time.
The path does not need to move straight higher. Wave 3 itself should contain five smaller waves, meaning temporary wave 4 pullbacks can occur before another wave 5 extension.
However, those corrections should remain supported while the larger bullish structure stays intact.
What Comes Next for $RSPG
The preferred path now calls for $RSPG to continue building its impulsive advance.
A short-term wave 3 can extend higher, followed by a wave 4 correction and another wave 5 push. That sequence would complete wave (1) at the next degree.
Afterward, a corrective wave (2) can develop before another larger advance begins.
Therefore, while temporary weakness should still occur, the broader structure now favors buying corrective pullbacks rather than expecting a major decline against the April 2025 low.
Technical Summary
To summarize, recent RSPG price action has negated the previously expected larger correction against the April 2025 low.
Instead, the ETF has opened an incomplete bullish sequence, suggesting that the next major impulsive phase is already developing.
The combination of the March 2020 and April 2025 bullish nests, together with the latest smaller-degree 1–2 structure, supports the view that wave 3 may have started.
As long as the bullish structure remains intact, the preferred Elliott Wave path continues higher toward $130+, with potential for further extension as the nested sequence accelerates.
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