Robust But Fragile Market On Its Toes

So … how can a market be robust but fragile?!

Like this …

On the one hand the indices simply aren’t budging down, but they keep threatening to!

Much of tech has taken a beating, but sector rotation has enabled the indices to stay near their highs.

My own take is that the large sell-off bars are likely to be Big Money distribution followed by retail take-up. Sooner or later there won’t be the retail take-up and the indices will pull back meaningfully.

However, you cannot act on it until we get a clear signal, and that simply hasn’t happened yet. More in the Market Outlook section below.

Market Outlook:

My medium-term outlook remains that the indices will pull back at least 10% from the highs, and likely more in the coming months.

However, you cannot ignore what’s before your eyes, and as of Friday’s close the indices are still refusing to budge.

So, regardless of tariffs and interest rate drama, the market put in a good show on Friday, and – if there were no new big news – the indices would be likely to inch up next week.

However, geopolitical events make everything a little fragile right now. And as I write this on Saturday afternoon, the latest news is that President Trump has announced tariffs of 15% after the Supreme Court’s striking down of his sweeping import taxes.

Where does that leave things?! Well, in a market where one day is like one month, who’s to speculate. Dry powder sounds like a good idea and let’s see where the dust settles!

Our market commentary continues to be outstanding. Mastering market timing enables you to swim WITH the tide at the right time.

Watch the video for more detail.

Market Timers:

• Longer Term Market Timer (OVIsi):
  Green.

• Medium Term Swing Timer:
  Neutral, emerging from bearish.

• The Main Indices OVIs:
  SPY and DIA neutral. QQQ negative. IWM positive.

Stock Selection:

Another week where I had to work to earn my corn in terms of finding decent setups. There are a couple that fit my criteria for Big Money Footprints AND risk control.

Mainly, powder is dry however, and as I mentioned last week, this is what sets apart really great performance. Be patient. Optimal setups will return soon enough, and when they do they can keep you fed for months. A bit like how a lion feasts!