Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Activity Softened in February

Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 8 in January to 1 in February and indicates expansion.

The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

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Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview:

Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 8 in January to 1 in February, due to declines in the indexes for shipments and new orders. Both indexes turned negative, with the shipments index dropping notably from 14 in January to 11 in February. However, the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January. Firms reported decreases in order backlogs, as the index became negative for the first time since June 2020. Vendor lead times increased for many firms as that index remained at nearhighs. Firms ’ historic perceptions about changes in local business conditions remained slightly negative; however, firms remained optimistic about future conditions. Link to Report

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

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Is today's Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We'll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).

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Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

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Here is the same chart including the average of the five.

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