Retail sales look strong in April but it’s a mirage of inflation.
Please consider the Census Department report on Advance Retail Sales for April of 2026.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $757.1 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from April 2025.
Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2026 to March 2026 percent change was revised from up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.6 percent (±0.2 percent).
Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from March 2026, and up 5.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 11.1 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 2.7 percent (±1.8 percent) from April 2025.
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
The report only lists nominal sales, not real (inflation-adjusted sales). It’s real sales that feed GDP.
Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over Month Change
Total: 0.5 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles: 0.7 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.5 percent
Motor Vehicles: -0.4 percent
Food Stores: 0.7 percent
Nonstore Sales: 1.1 percent
Gas Stations: 2.8 percent
Those look strong, but real sales are down.
Real Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
Total: -0.1 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles: -0.1 percent
Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: -0.2 percent
Motor Vehicles: -1.1 percent
Food Stores: 0.2 percent
Nonstore Sales: 0.5 percent
Gas Stations: 2.1 percent
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Detail
Real vs Nominal Sales Notes
Real retail sales peaked in March of 2021 at 233,440. They are now 227,758. That’s a decline of 5,682 or 2.4 percent.
In March of 2021, nominal sales were 603,581. They are now 757,085. That’s an increase of 153,504 or 25.4 percent.
Over 100 percent of the increase in retail sales since March of 2021 is due to inflation.
Yet, I can guarantee there will be numerous comments from mainstream economic illiterates today about the “strong consumer”.
Oh, and didn’t someone campaign on fixing this?
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
Percent Change from Year Ago
Nominal retail sales year-over year peaked in March of 2025 at 5.2 percent, now 4.9 percent. That’s the number the Commerce Department reports.
Real retail sales year-over year peaked in March of 2025 at 2.7 percent, now 1.1 percent. That’s the number that matters.
But hey, “Look at the Dow. That’s what everyone should be talking about,” said Attorney General Pam Bondi right before she was fired.
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