Retail Sales: Down 8.7% in March

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for March was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -8.7% month-over-month to one decimal and was below the Investing.com forecast of -8.0%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -4.48% MoM (to two decimals).

Here is the introduction from today's report:

Statement Regarding COVID-19 Impact: Due to recent events surrounding COVID-19, many businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely. The Census Bureau has monitored response and data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $483.1 billion, a decrease of 8.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and 6.2 percent (±0.7 percent) below March 2019. Total sales for the January 2020 through March 2020 period were up 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2020 to February 2020 percent change was revised from down 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to down 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 6.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from February 2020, and 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) below last year. Food and beverage stores were up 28.0 percent (±0.9 percent) from March 2019, while clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 50.7 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year. [view full report]

The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.

 

The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Here is the headline series.

 

Core Sales

Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.

 

“Control” Purchases

The next two charts illustrate retail sales “Control” purchases, which is an even more “Core” view of retail sales. This series excludes Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline, Building Materials as well as Food Services & Drinking Places. The popular financial press typically ignores this series, but it a more consistent and reliable reading of the economy.

 

Here is the same series year-over-year. Note that the current level is near the start of the recession in 2001 and its highest since the Great Recession.

 

For a better sense of the reduced volatility of the “Control” series, here is a YoY overlay with the headline retail sales.

 

Bottom Line: March headline sales plummeted due to the COVID-19 pandemic and were below forecasts. When FRED publishes their data, we'll take a closer look at Real Retail Sales.