Retail Sales: Down 16.5% in April

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for April was released this morning. Headline sales came in at -16.5% month-over-month to one decimal and was below the Investing.com forecast of -12.0%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at -17.2% MoM (to two decimals).

Here is the introduction from today's report:

Statement Regarding COVID-19 Impact: Due to recent events surrounding COVID-19, many businesses are operating on a limited capacity or have ceased operations completely. The Census Bureau has monitored response and data quality and determined estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more information on the compilation of this month's report, see <COVID-19 FAQs>.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, a decrease of 16.4 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 21.6 percent (± 0.7 percent) below April 2019. Total sales for the February 2020 through April 2020 period were down 7.7 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2020 to March 2020 percent change was revised from down 8.4 percent (± 0.4 percent) to down 8.3 percent (± 0.3 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 15.1 percent (± 0.4 percent) from March 2020, and 17.8 percent (± 0.7 percent) below last year. Clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 89.3 percent (± 1.8 percent) from April 2019, while nonstore retailers were up 21.6 percent (± 1.4 percent) from last year. [view full report]

The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.

 

The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Here is the headline series.

 

Core Sales

Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.

 

“Control” Purchases

The next two charts illustrate retail sales “Control” purchases, which is an even more “Core” view of retail sales. This series excludes Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline, Building Materials as well as Food Services & Drinking Places. The popular financial press typically ignores this series, but it a more consistent and reliable reading of the economy.

 

Here is the same series year-over-year. Note that the current level is at an all-time low.

 

For a better sense of the reduced volatility of the “Control” series, here is a YoY overlay with the headline retail sales.

 

Bottom Line: April headline sales plummeted further due to the COVID-19 pandemic and were below forecasts. When FRED publishes their data, we'll take a closer look at Real Retail Sales.