Week 9 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The rolling averages remain mixed.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 2.7 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility.
Intermodal transport growth remains strong year-over-year.
The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
(Click on image to enlarge)
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).
| Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago | Current quantities accelerating or decelerating | Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago | |
| 4 week rolling average | +1.8 % | decelerating | accelerating |
| 13 week rolling average | +1.3 % | decelerating | accelerating |
| 52 week rolling average | +3.0 % | accelerating | accelerating |
A summary of the data from the AAR:
U.S. railroads originated 1,028,141 carloads in February 2018, down 0.3 percent, or 2,753 carloads, from February 2017. U.S. railroads also originated 1,104,001 containers and trailers in February 2018, up 6.9 percent, or 70,970 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in February 2018 were 2,132,142, up 3.3 percent, or 68,217 carloads and intermodal units from February 2017.
In February 2018, nine of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with February 2017. These included: crushed stone, sand & gravel, up 6,329 carloads or 7.5 percent; chemicals, up 4,286 carloads or 3.4 percent; and metallic ores, up 2,510 carloads or 19.4 percent. Commodities that saw declines in February 2018 from February 2017 included: coal, down 5,801 carloads or 1.7 percent; grain, down 4,712 carloads or 5.3 percent; and motor vehicles & parts, down 3,283 carloads or 4.5 percent.
"Rail carloads in February, like in many other recent months, were held back by declines in coal, grain, and motor vehicles," said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. "Declines in those categories are unfortunate, but they don't reflect general weakness in the economy. Excluding them, carloads were up a reasonably solid 2.1% in February. Moreover, February 2018 was the best month ever for carloads of chemicals and the second-best month ever for intermodal. While these are good signs for the broader economy going forward, they are potentially compromised by the uncertainty created by recent developments in trade policy."
Excluding coal, carloads were up 3,048 carloads, or 0.4 percent, in February 2018 from February 2017. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were up 7,760 carloads, or 1.3 percent.
Total U.S. carload traffic for the first two months of 2018 was 2,245,546 carloads, down 2 percent, or 45,184 carloads, from the same period last year; and 2,414,142 intermodal units, up 5 percent, or 115,153 containers and trailers, from last year.
Total combined U.S. traffic for the first nine weeks of 2018 was 4,659,688 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 1.5 percent compared to last year.
Week Ending March 3, 2018
Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 544,194 carloads and intermodal units, up 5.8 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending March 3 were 264,659 carloads, up 1.3 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 279,535 containers and trailers, up 10.4 percent compared to 2017.
Six of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included chemicals, up 1,941 carloads, to 33,983; miscellaneous carloads, up 1,142 carloads, to 11,766; and nonmetallic minerals, up 899 carloads, to 34,680. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 included grain, down 797 carloads, to 23,198; forest products, down 481 carloads, to 9,813; and motor vehicles and parts, down 239 carloads, to 18,368.
Coal is over 1/3 of the total railcar count, and this week the EIA says coal production is 2.4 % lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2017.
The middle row in the table below removes coal and grain from the changes in the railcar counts as neither of these commodities is economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +1.3 % | +10.4 % | +5.8 % |
| Ignoring coal and grain | +2.7 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -2.0 % | +5.0 % | +1.5 % |
(Click on image to enlarge)
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For the week ended March 3, 2018
- Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 15.1 million short tons (mmst)
- This production estimate is 0.4% lower than last week's estimate and 2.4% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2017
- East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 6.1 mmst
- West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 9 mmst
- U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 130.9 mmst, 6.3% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2017
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