Q2 2026 U.S. Retail Scorecard

To date, 156 of the 185 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2026, representing 82% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 5% delivered on-target results and 22% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 69.4%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 156 companies in this index is 7.7% for Q2 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 72% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 28% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) reported stronger-than-expected Q2 revenue, which surged 53.2%, although earnings fell short of expectations. Same-store sales (SSS) rose a healthy 4.9%, above the 4.4% consensus estimate and nearly matching last year’s 5.0% increase. Growth was broad-based across categories and driven by both higher transactions and average ticket, with management also pointing to the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a meaningful sales driver.

However, consolidated profitability weakened, with net income declining 10.3% to $318.5 million. Operating margin fell sharply to 8.1%, reflecting, in part, the inclusion of Foot Locker (FL) and acquisition-related effects. The divergence between the two businesses was particularly notable: Foot Locker’s pro forma SSS declined 3.6%, compared with 4.9% growth at the core Dick’s business, while Foot Locker International SSS fell 3.3%. Management attributed Foot Locker’s weakness to challenging conditions across the athletic footwear marketplace. Against this backdrop, Dick’s Sporting Goods revised its full-year 2026 outlook, citing continued pressure across the athletic footwear and apparel market.

Here are the latest Q2 2026 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q2 2026

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

Positive earnings surprise

According to our StarMine data, several retailers are well positioned to exceed Q2 earnings expectations and deliver positive earnings surprises. Looking ahead, sentiment remains particularly positive on Williams Sonoma (WSM)’s Q2 performance, with results expected later this week. The home furnishing store is expected to report a 4.4% SSS. Consensus estimates currently call for Q2 2026 EPS of $2.08 (Exhibit 3). However, the StarMine Predicted Surprise is above 2%, signaling a strong likelihood that Williams Sonoma could deliver both an earnings beat and a positive surprise.

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: Williams Sonoma StarMine Models Scores