Q2 2026 U.S. Retail Scorecard

To date, 165 of the 185 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q2 2026, representing 89% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 23% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q2 2026 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 70.2%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 165 companies in this index is 7.8% for Q2 2026. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 73% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 27% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

The recent earnings results underscore two distinct areas of strength in today’s consumer environment: value and differentiation. Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) continue to benefit from consumers seeking affordability, while Urban Outfitters (URBN) demonstrates that shoppers remain willing to spend on discretionary apparel when brands deliver compelling products, strong digital experiences, and differentiated concepts such as Nuuly.

Dollar Tree delivered stronger-than-expected Q2 results, exceeding both earnings and revenue expectations. Earnings surged 373.7% from a year ago, while revenue increased 7.0%. Same-store sales (SSS) were also healthy, with the namesake Dollar Tree banner posting a 3.7% comp, driven by a 3.3% increase in average ticket and a 0.4% increase in traffic.

Profitability received a significant boost from tariff refunds, with gross margin expanding 850 basis points to 42.9%, including a 680-basis-point benefit from the net impact of tariff refunds. Against this backdrop, management raised its full-year guidance. “What continues to set Dollar Tree apart is our ability to deliver value, convenience, and the excitement of discovery all in one shopping trip,” said CEO Mike Creedon. (Source: Dollar Tree Q2 2026 Earnings Release)

Similarly, Dollar General exceeded Q2 earnings and revenue expectations, with earnings increasing 19.9% and revenue rising 5.3% from a year ago. SSS increased a healthy 3.5%, comfortably above the 2.6% consensus estimate. Importantly, the SSS was supported by continued customer traffic growth, suggesting consumers remain highly engaged with Dollar General’s value proposition. Management highlighted its fifth consecutive quarter of customer traffic growth and sixth consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales across all four merchandising categories. (Source: Dollar General Q2 2026 Earnings Release)

Taken together, the results reinforce the continued strength of value-oriented retail, particularly among lower-income and budget-conscious consumers navigating persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. Positive traffic at both retailers also suggests that consumers are not simply spending more per visit, they continue to actively seek out value.

Meanwhile, Urban Outfitters delivered another strong quarter, with Q2 revenue increasing 10.4% to a record $1.66 billion, marking its eighth consecutive quarter of record sales. Although earnings came in slightly below expectations, they still increased a robust 8.9% from a year ago. Growth was broad-based across channels and brands. SSS benefited from high-single-digit digital growth and mid-single-digit store growth, while Free People delivered the strongest comp at 10.0%, followed by the namesake Urban Outfitters banner at 8.4%. Nuuly remained another standout, with subscription sales surging 28.6%, driven by continued subscriber growth in the apparel rental business. Management described the quarter as its highest adjusted profit quarter in company history, highlighting the strength of its brands and diversified business model (Source: Urban Outfitters Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release).

Here are the latest Q2 2026 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q2 2026