Q1 2025 U.S. Retail Scorecard

top view mall interior photo

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To date, 139 of the 197 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2025, representing 71% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 63% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 4% delivered on-target results and 33% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 7.5%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 197 companies in this index is 2.8% for Q1 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 48% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 52% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

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Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Walmart exceeded Q1 earnings expectations, delivering a positive surprise despite a slight revenue miss. The retail giant also outperformed on same-store sales and e-commerce metrics. Same-store sales rose 4.5%, driven by a 1.6% increase in transactions and a 2.8% rise in average spend. Walmart maintained its full-year guidance.

During its earnings call, the company cautioned that higher prices are likely due to tariffs: “We will do our best to keep our prices as low as possible, but given the magnitude of the tariffs – even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren’t able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins” (Source: Walmart Q1 2025 Earnings Call). Walmart’s stock price (NYSE: WMT) fell by nearly 4% in early trading on May 15, then regained some strength later in the trading session.

Retail sales rose 0.1% in April, in line with expectations. The ex-autos component also gained just 0.1%, while the control group declined 0.2%, falling short of forecasts of a 0.3% gain.

Following a March surge in demand as consumers looked to front-run incoming tariffs, the April data suggests spending has remained resilient despite implementation of the new tariffs. Most retail categories saw a decline in receipts, but there were notable gains in food services and bars (+1.2%), building materials and garden equipment (+0.8%), and non-store retailers (+0.2%).

Here are the Q1 2025 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2025

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