Probability Of 2 Qtr Negative Growth In 2026 At Post-Strike High

Menzie Chinn
By Econbrowser of Econbrowser
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

Recession probabilities for 2026 reached a post-strike high as the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz reopening drops to 37%.

From Kalshi:

My conjecture: As long as the probability of Strait of Hormuz reopening goes down, the betting odds of recession will rise. Polymarket has the end-April odds of Hormuz being open at end-April now down to 37%.

The Brent crude futures curve as of Friday close. If $108 is about consistent with closure, then April settlement price is consistent with near complete closure.

Source: ICE.

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