Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment for March?

ADP released their estimates for March today: up 517 thousand. Bloomberg consensus is for +575 thousand.

Figure 1: Month-on-month growth rate (not annualized, in log terms) in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for March as of 3/31 (teal square), ADP March release (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.