Portion Of U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Inverts

By Mish Shedlock of Global Economic Analysis

Investment Advisor Representative - Sitka Pacific Capital Management • Feb 3, 2016 at 4:42 AM EST

Curve Watchers’ Anonymous has had its eyes on the yield curve in expectation that portions of the curve would invert. A small inversion did happen on Tuesday when yield on 6-month treasuries briefly traded at a higher yield than 1-year treasuries.

Inversion!

Bloomberg Screen Shot

I captured the above chart at 5:00PM but similar conditions existed for several hours.

Yield Curve 6-Month to 5-Year

Red: 5-Year
Blue: 3-Year
Green: 2-Year
Orange 1-year
Purple: 6-Month
Brown: 3-Month

I created the above chart in Stockcharts. Alas, Stockcharts uses end-of-day vales only so it appears there is no inversion today. Yesterday the 6-month and 1-year treasuries closed with the same yield.

Those who insist the yield curve needs to invert before a recession can happen, now have that inversion, even if it’s a tiny one.

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