Pictures From The Steel Trade War

Raw steel production is down, as is primary metal employment.

Figure 1: Primary metal production workers (NAICS 331), 000’s s.a. (blue, left scale), and raw steel production index (NAICS 3311, 2pt.), 2012=100 (brown, right scale), both on log scale. Light orange is Trump administration; orange is since implementation of Section 232. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve Board, via FRED. 

In 2015-17, it could be argued that the strong dollar drove the decline in employment in those years.

Figure 2: Primary metal production workers (NAICS 331), 000’s s.a. (blue, left scale), and real value of US dollar against broad basket of currencies, March 1973=100 (brown, right scale), both on log scale. Light orange is Trump administration; orange is since implementation of Section 232. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve Board, via FRED. 

The recent decline in employment occurs against a backdrop of a roughly stable dollar.