Physical Oil Market Starts To Decouple From Futures Market

The markets are closed for Good Friday, and I hope you’re getting a day of rest, and that you and your family are safe and healthy wherever you may be, especially at such a turbulent time in the world.

Since there’s no trading taking place today, I’ll just mention that the latest labor report did come out this morning, and it was quite a contrast to last month’s significant miss.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March according to the government, versus expectations of 59,000 jobs created. The government also further revised downward the 92,000 job loss figure it reported last month for February by another 41,000 jobs, which brings the total loss in February to 133,000 jobs. That also makes this month’s figure of 178,000 jobs added quite a swing in the other direction.

I would say that seems a little odd, but it’s no secret that the government labor figures are consistently some of the most politicized data out there, and especially in the middle of a war, where straight answers are hard to find, I’m not sure I would use anything being put out by the government right now as a full faith barometer of what’s truly going on in the economy.

Yet more significantly, the other note I wanted to leave you with before wrapping up for the week is that the oil spot price is diverging from the futures price, and suggesting that we’re really entering the danger zone right now.

I’d heard rumblings of spot oil getting divorced from the futures over the past few weeks, but it seems like it’s really happening now.

I just posted a short video that details more about what’s going on, how it could impact gold and silver, and also just how serious this situation has actually become, and I think you might find it helpful at this particular time.

But hopefully wherever you are on this Good Friday, you and your family are safe, healthy, and well.

Certainly, the events of the past month make it easy to realize just how fortunate most of us are to be able to sleep in a home without worrying about it being in danger, and I just wish you a happy holiday weekend, and will see you back here on Monday.