Pending Home Sales: Second Month Of Growth

This morning the National Association of Realtors released the June data for their Pending Home Sales Index. Here is an excerpt from the latest press release:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the 2.8% increase can be attributed to the current favorable conditions and predicted the rise is likely the start of a positive trend for home sales. “Job growth is doing well, the stock market is near an all-time high and home values are consistently increasing. When you combine that with the incredibly low mortgage rates, it is not surprising to now see two straight months of increases,” he said. (more here)

The chart below gives us a snapshot of the index since 2001. The MoM came in at 2.8%, up from a 1.1% increase last month. Investing.com had forecast an increase of 0.5%.

Over this time frame, the US population has grown by 16.0%. For a better look at the underlying trend, here is an overlay with the nominal index and the population-adjusted variant. The focus is pending home sales growth since 2001.

The index for the most recent month is 15% below its all-time high in 2005. The population-adjusted index is 23% off its 2005 high.

Pending versus Existing Home Sales

The NAR explains that "because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing Home Sales by a month or two." Here is a growth overlay of the two series. The general correlation, as expected, is close. And a close look at the numbers supports the NAR's assessment that their pending sales series is a leading index.