Pain In Treasury Bonds

There are times when going contrary the herds greatly rewards you and there are times when it tramples you into the dust like the insignificant little peon you actually are.  I am an insignificant little peon because I thought that buying TLT and IEF in the wake of the post-election crash could work out well.  Well, let’s file this one under ‘err, not so much’…

 

 

The thing is, the Continuum awaits, gearing up for the big test at around 3.4% on the 30 year bond yield.  My problem is that while early on the declining bonds/rising interest rates theme (for most of 2016) I did not think TYX would go for the limiter (monthly EMA 100) all in one big gulp.  Now I’m like ‘okay, just 3% more damage, I can handle that… I think’.  But it sucks in the meantime.  On the positive side, TLT and IEF pay increasing yield income while waiting for the contrary setup at the limiter, if I hold them.

 

 

It’s frustrating.  I put good trades up here (nftrh.com) and so I need to put bad ones up as well.  So far, this is a bad one.  I think I’m going to hold and take the pain for a while, though.