That’s the only way to think about it: We go from free navigation on the Strait of Hormuz on February 27 to de facto Iranian control on inbound shipping.
From NYT:
An arrangement with Iran to reopen the strait could come with a geopolitical cost for the United States. Iranian officials say they are designing the accord to ratify their capacity to control the strait and retain strategic leverage that they did not employ before the war.
Officials familiar with the emerging proposal have said that, under the new framework, vessels heading into the Persian Gulf would have to transit a channel controlled by Iran, while outbound ships would travel on a channel near Oman.
Such a deal allows traffic to resume (who knows at what dollar price).
Source: Kalshi, as of 8/4/2026 noon CT.
This outcome would prevent the on-off-on nature of the oil market prices:
The only question — given Mr. Trump’s inability to hold steady to any approach — is whether any deal made would be sustained. One could imagine criticism of deal of this nature provoking recriminations about permitting the Iranians “a win”, and spurring another flip-flop.
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