October 2020 ECRI's WLI Marginally Improved

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward marginally improved but remains in expansion. Also, ECRI released its lagging index this past week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline was immediate. In theory, this index is now indicating that in the second or third quarter of 2021 the economy should be in expansion year-over-year.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

Click here to freely download, including the full history of its level and growth rate.

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ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged down to 138.8, as the growth rate ticked up to 3.5%.

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ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For a quick glance at the WLI's recent performance, please see the chart below.

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U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The August economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth improved but continues to show economic contraction.

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U.S. Lagging Index:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth declined and remains in contraction.

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source: ECRI