October 2019 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Declined And Returned To Contraction

By Steven Hansen of Global Economic Intersection

Managing Partner at Econintersect LLC • Oct 25, 2019 at 3:01 PM EDT

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and returned to contraction. ECRI also released its coincident and lagging indicators.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and returned to contraction. ECRI also released its coincident and lagging indicators.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

In essence, there is no growth forecast in the business cycle six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 144.8 while the growth rate slipped further to -0.2%.

ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

Please see links below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:

- Read ECRI's Achuthan and Banerji CNN Op-Ed "Don't Blame Global Slowdown on Trade War"

- CNBC talks with ECRI's Achuthan "Consumer Spending Growth Slowing"

- CNBC interview with ECRI's Achuthan "ISM Mfg, Jobs & Consumer"

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below.

Review ECRI's recent real-time track record.

For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and ECRI on LinkedIn.

U.S. Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The September economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth declined.

U.S. Lagging Index:

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth was little changed.

source: ECRI

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