October 2018 ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Index Slips Further Into Contraction

By Steven Hansen of Global Economic Intersection

Managing Partner at Econintersect LLC • Nov 2, 2018 at 5:10 PM EDT

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and in contraction.

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward declined and in contraction.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

The current forecast is a slight economic contraction six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Decreases

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 146.1, while WLI growth fell to -1.4%.

For more on ECRI's cyclical outlook, please see links below to other ECRI information that has been made public:

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a interview on Bloomberg TV

- read ECRI's current "Damned Lies and Statistics" article in Mauldin Economics

For a quick glance at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below:

Click here to review ECRI's recent track record.

For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The September index value (issued in October) shows the rate of economic growth marginally declined.

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures grew in October.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

(Click on image to enlarge)

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth marginally improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

source: ECRI

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