NZD/USD: Vulnerable Ahead of RBNZ – Range Break in Focus

By Michael Boutros of Daily FX

Forex Trading News & Analysis • May 9, 2017 at 1:00 PM EDT

NZD/USD has continued to hold above a key support threshold we’ve been tracking at 6861/85- this region is defined by the December/January lows & the 50% retracement of the late-2015 advance.

NZD/USD 240min

NZD/USD 240min Chart

Technical Outlook: NZD/USD has continued to hold above a key support threshold we’ve been tracking at 6861/85- this region is defined by the December/January lows & the 50% retracement of the late-2015 advance. The focus heading into the RBNZ interest rate decision tomorrow night is on a break of the 6860-6970 range with a break below the 2016 open at 6828 needed to validate resumption of the broader downtrend.

A breach above 6970 suggests a larger scale recovery is underway with such a scenario targeting 6994 backed by the upper parallel / 7044- an area of interest for possible exhaustion/short-entries. A third of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 19-22pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the RBNZ with the release likely to fuel increased volatility in the Kiwi crosses.

NZD/USD: Vulnerable Ahead of RBNZ – Range Break in Focus

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD- the ratio stands at +1.03 (50.7% of traders are long)- neutral reading

Retail traders have been net-short since March 27- Kiwi is down 2% since
Long positions are 4.7% lower than yesterday and 16.6% lower from last week
Short positions are 27.9% higher than yesterday but 20.6% higher from last week
While broader sentiment continues to offer little conviction on an immediate bias, the recent surge in short-positioning as price comes into support suggests the immediate downside outlook is at risk heading into the RBNZ

Relevant Data Releases

NZD/USD: Vulnerable Ahead of RBNZ – Range Break in Focus

Disclosure:

Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX marketsis scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Find out what current Gold positioning is saying about the current trend.Get more information on Sentiment here Free!

What’s driving gold prices? Review DailyFX’s 2Q Gold Projections Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT

Interested in seeing what IG client’s positioning means for the JPY? Find out here! Check out the full DailyFX Economic Calendar for top events.

It may be your favorite currency, but who’s with you? Take a look at the DailyFX sentiment page. Have a question about trading the US Dollar? Join a Q&A webinar and ask it live! Check Out the DailyFX Guides for Additional Trading Ideas

What’s on the agenda? Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. And if you’re looking for ideas that are more short-term in nature, please check out our IG Client Sentiment

Check out our NEW DailyFX 2Q Trading Guides. Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT

Paul conducts webinars geared towards equity indices and commodities every Tuesday, for details see the Webinar Calendar

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. What will drive the US Dollar trends through June? See our forecast to find out!

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key risk event impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar. If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. And if you’re looking for ideas that are more short-term in nature, please check out our Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Indicator.

Are retail traders buying or selling the US Dollar, and what does say about the trend? Find out here! DailyFX, the free news and research website of leading forex and CFD broker FXCM, delivers up-to-date analysis of the fundamental and technical influences driving the currency and commodity markets. With nine internationally-based analysts publishing over 30 articles and producing 5 video news updates daily, DailyFX offers in-depth coverage of price action, predictions of likely market moves, and exhaustive interpretations of salient economic and political developments. DailyFX is also home to one of the most powerful economic calendars available on the web, complete with advanced sorting capabilities, detailed descriptions of upcoming events on the economic docket, and projections of how economic report data will impact the markets. Combined with the free charts and live rate updates featured on DailyFX, the DailyFX economic calendar is an invaluable resource for traders who heavily rely on the news for their trading strategies. Additionally, DailyFX serves as a portal to one the most vibrant online discussion forums in the forex trading community. Avoiding market noise and the irrelevant personal commentary that plague many forex blogs and forums, the DailyFX Forum has established a reputation as being a place where real traders go to talk about serious trading.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on dailyfx.com are provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

Comments

Back to all articles