NZDUSD has failed to revisit its 2025 highs, with price already rotating back toward the 0.5850 region. The overlapping price action in this zone strongly suggests that the broader move since 2025 remains corrective rather than impulsive, keeping the larger structure in consolidation mode.
At this stage, the primary wave count points to the development of a bullish ABCDE triangle. This type of structure typically signals a prolonged period of sideways movement, implying that the current range is unlikely to break decisively in the near term. Traders should therefore be prepared for continued choppy conditions within well-defined boundaries.
Looking at the recent price action, March delivered a move lower, but notably in a slow and overlapping manner. This is characteristic of a complex corrective phase, which we interpret as a WXY decline within wave C. Such structures often extend longer than expected and can include multiple internal patterns before completion.
More recently, attention has been on a wedge pattern that formed within the final subwave (C) of wave Y. This wedge structure helped mark a temporary bottom and led to a solid bounce over the past few days. The reaction from this area suggests that a short-term recovery phase is now underway.
From a wave perspective, this recovery is likely to unfold in an A-B-C corrective structure, potentially pushing price back toward the upper boundary of the triangle range. While this does not yet signal a major trend reversal, it does favor further upside in the near term.
On the downside, key support remains at the 0.58 level. As long as price holds above this zone, the bullish recovery scenario within the broader triangle structure remains valid.
In summary, NZDUSD continues to trade within a complex corrective environment, with a triangle formation as the leading scenario. Short-term upside is favored, but within a larger range that may persist before any meaningful breakout occurs.
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