Nvidia Reports Wednesday. Bonds Already Softened The Week.

Last week the market finally blinked. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,674.37, down about 1.4% on the week. The Nasdaq dropped roughly 2.1% to 26,180. The Dow closed near 53,277, off about 0.9%. That snapped a three-week winning streak right after the S&P had tagged fresh highs the week before.

Bonds set the tone more than earnings. Long yields stayed elevated even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talked about leaning on the long end. Oil and Middle East headlines kept energy jumpy. Tech spent most of the week giving back earlier gains. Friday brought a bounce, including a roughly 500-point Dow lift, but it was not enough to rescue the weekly scoreboard.

This week is cleaner and louder. Nvidia (NVDA) reports after the close Wednesday. Software and chip names stack around it. Then Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole as PCE lands. The market does not need another sleepy summer session. It needs a verdict on AI spending and the rate path.

Catalyst 1: Nvidia Reports Wednesday

Nvidia is the week's main event for a reason. The Street is already pricing another huge AI quarter, with revenue estimates clustered near the low $90 billion range and earnings near about $2.08 a share. Guidance will matter more than the beat. The stock closed Friday at $214.72 after a multi-day fade into the report.

That setup is the story. Everyone already knows the AI boom is real. The fight is whether demand is still accelerating hard enough to justify the multiple after a soft week in big tech. If Jensen walks out with a clean guide, the whole semiconductor complex breathes. If the guide feels like a ceiling, last week's selloff was the warm-up.

CrowdStrike (CRWD), Salesforce (CRM), and Marvell (MRVL) also report midweek. They matter. They are still satellites around Nvidia's orbit this week.

Catalyst 2: PCE and Jackson Hole

July PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets will read it against sticky long yields and the idea that the September FOMC could still go either way. Then Warsh takes the stage at Jackson Hole late in the week for his first big policy speech as chair.

That combo is the rate-path test. Soft PCE plus a calm Warsh tone can put a floor under growth stocks after last week's bond scare. A hot inflation reading or a hawkish keynote keeps pressure on multiples just as Nvidia is trying to re-rate the AI complex higher.

Stock of the Week: Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia is Stock of the Week because Wednesday is not just another earnings night. It is the market's stress test for whether the AI buildout is still compounding, or whether investors are already paying full freight for perfection. The stock entered the week lower after fading from the mid-$220s. That is a cleaner entry into a binary than a fresh high the day before the call.

Bull case: Revenue and margins clear the bar. Guidance stays aggressive on Blackwell and the next stack. Cloud and hyperscaler spend still looks open-ended. The stock snaps the pre-earnings slide and drags semis higher into month-end.

Bear case: The quarter is fine and the stock still sells off because the bar was absurd. Inventory chatter, China friction, or a softer guide on the next leg turns last week's bond-and-tech fade into a longer de-rating. Software peers that report the same week catch the splash.

"Nvidia already told the market AI is real. Wednesday is whether the next guide still forces people to raise their numbers."

Watch three things into the report: the after-hours move versus the prior five sessions of drift lower, how semis open Thursday, and whether yields calm enough for growth multiples to expand on good news.

Bottom Line

The market entered the week lower after bonds and oil spoiled a third weekly win. Nvidia's Wednesday report is the cleanest story on the board. PCE and Jackson Hole decide if rates give the AI trade room to run. Nvidia is the name that sets the temperature for everything else.

P.S. Nvidia reports after the close Wednesday, August 26. Plan around the guide, not just the headline beat.