NVDA's Woes Push It Toward 52-Week Lows

In an already weak market, things have only gotten worse for Nvidia (NVDA) this week. After hitting an all-time high just over a month ago, the stock has lost close to 30% of its value and isn’t far from a 52-week low, a level it rarely visited after becoming the poster child for AI.

From a longer-term perspective, the chart below shows NVDA’s performance (on a log scale) since the bottom of the 2022 bear market. With this week’s declines, NVDA is increasingly trading down toward $160, which was the high end of its range in late 2024/early 2025 and has acted as support over the last 12–18 months.

At current levels, NVDA’s drawdown is just under 30%. After clearing its pre-2022 bear market highs in the spring of 2023, NVDA has had only one larger drawdown than the current one. That was during the tariff tantrum back in the spring of 2025.

What sets this drop apart from others in recent years is its speed. Including today, NVDA’s 5-day decline has widened to 18.5%, larger than any other 5-day move since October 2022.

NVDA is the largest component in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), but the index hasn’t followed it lower. Yesterday, while NVDA fell more than 4%, the SOX rallied close to 7%. Today, the SOX is down just 1.2%, but NVDA is falling more than 5%.

We’ve highlighted this trend several times this year, but even though it’s the largest component of the SOX, NVDA has become less correlated with the index. Believe it or not, while NVDA has underperformed the SOX by more than 12 percentage points since the close on Election Day, this isn’t even the biggest period of underperformance for the stock over the last year. In fact, there have been three other one-week periods when NVDA underperformed the SOX by a wider margin. NVDA may be having a bad week, but if it were nearly as correlated with the SOX as it once was, this week could have been a lot worse.