One trend we have been closely monitoring has been massive nuclear power generation thus far through 2018. Below we show how nuclear power plant outages through 2018 have been far below year-ago levels and similarly far below the 5-year average.
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The result through 2018 thus far then has been far less natural gas being burned than usual to cover nuclear outages. Assuming all nuclear outages would have been replaced by natural gas power burns, we show the daily impact this impressive nuclear power generation has had on natural gas demand.
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In the context of significant production growth over the past year and a half, this demand destruction has made recent balance loosening appear even more dramatic.
The result can often be days like today, when daily balances deteriorate dramatically and outweigh any incremental weather changes.
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This can best be seen along the strip, where the worst losses on the day were actually X8-Z9 versus the prompt month July N8 contract.
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