Nowcasting The Core Price Level

Menzie Chinn
By Menzie Chinn of Econbrowser.com
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin •

The article uses nowcasting techniques to estimate the current levels of core CPI and core PCE inflation as of November 11, 2025, and argues that these measures are not showing a sharp decline — easing inflation isn’t yet evident.

Black and Gray Laptop Computer

Image Source: Pexels
 

CPI and PCE, as of 11/11, from Cleveland Fed:
 

Figure 1: Core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (tan), both in logs, 2024M01=0. October CPI is nowcast, September and October PCE deflator is nowcast. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, Cleveland Fed (11/11), and author’s calculations.
 

Contra Kevin (Dow 36,000/Quadratic Covid) Hassett and Bessent, I do not see corresponding instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout, 2023) declining.

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